The Affordable Care Act is a complex law, but for a major piece of legislation that actually made it all the way through a very open legislative process, it’s remarkably coherent. Republicans have tried to sabotage it since before it was passed, and yet it still managed to succeed while a Democratic Administration remained in power. I have predicted in the past that if Republicans actually managed to poison Obamacare that they would come to regret it, because it would lead eventually to the rise of a single payer (i.e., truly socialist) system.
I assumed that the move toward single payer would take a generation to happen and would be driven at the federal level. But Nevada’s quick embrace of Medicaid for everyone surprised me, and it looks like a good option that addressed a lot of tough healthcare financing problems. Even if this Nevada plan ultimately dies on the vine, it provides a template for other states.
Here’s the basic story behind the Nevada Care Plan: Obamacare supporters are worried about what will happen to people who use the exchanges/marketplaces if Trump or Congress is successful in destroying the markets. Trump has been wreaking havoc on the marketplaces by threatening to cut off the subsidies that make premiums and out-of-pocket expenses affordable. The American Health Care Act (AHCA), aka Trumpcare, Ryancare, etc. would be the death knell. As a result, millions of people who get insurance through exchanges today would be out of luck.
A Medicaid for all approach enables people at any income level to buy into Medicaid, paying premiums if their income is too high to qualify under current rules or if they are are otherwise ineligible. Medicaid provides a very comprehensive set of benefits –broader, in some ways, than commercial plans or Medicare. Prescription drugs are covered, and so is nursing home care. Even better for the patient, there are no co-pays or deductibles. Cost per patient is lower than commercial plans or Medicare because Medicaid pays physicians and hospitals rock bottom rates, and by law Medicaid gets the best pricing on drugs.
Interestingly, many of the insurance companies that have succeeded on the exchanges are Medicaid managed care plans like Centene and Molina that have adapted their products to the Obamacare population.
Medicaid for all would not preclude private plans from participating in the market. In fact, its existence could pave the way for a variety of supplemental or upgraded plans that could be purchased by individuals or offered by employers. That approach is similar to what happens in other rich countries like the UK.
In summary, Medicaid for all has some really good features:
- It bends the cost curve considerably by forcing lower prices on hospitals, physicians and other providers. The main reason healthcare spending is higher in the US than in other rich countries is because unit prices are higher here. In one fell swoop that could be addressed, even if providers aren’t entirely pleased.
- Drug pricing, which is such a lightning rod, could also be addressed quickly by bringing prices into the Medicaid framework, the one place where they are reasonably well controlled.
- It would enable everyone who wants to be covered to be covered.
- It would eliminate the vagaries of the exchanges. No one would need to worry about whether insurance companies would offer plans from year to year.
- In theory, it could enable states to innovate, assuming that they are given the freedom to modify benefits around the edges.
Admittedly, Medicaid for all might dampen innovation by reducing the financial incentives for the introduction of new drugs and devices and placing more control in the hands of government. But frankly commercial health plans have not done a good job of spurring innovation or cutting costs; few people are likely to shed a tear if their role is reduced.
June 14, 2017