How the new surge and vaccine success are connected

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Catch a wave and you’re sitting on top of the surge

It’s counterintuitive: a fourth covid-19 wave is evident even as vaccine rollout accelerates. Conventional wisdom blames it on more contagious variants, pandemic fatigue, and states reopening too fast. There’s truth to all of that, but it overlooks the role that vaccination itself plays.

I shared my thinking with the Boston Globe (CDC Director Walesnsky stresses ‘hope,’ not ‘doom,’ after touring Hynes Convention Center. Vaccinations are accelerating even as COVID-19 cases also rise.)

“As spring comes, people in their 20s are relaxing their behavior and going out to restaurants with their friends,” said David Williams, president of Health Business Group, a Boston management consulting firm. “They don’t have to feel as guilty about infecting them if Ma and Grandma have already been vaccinated.”

It’s actually pretty straightforward. We’ve asked younger people to make severe sacrifices over the past year. A central argument has been that they are protecting their older relatives and others in society, who are at mortal risk if infected. Now that the old are largely protected through vaccination, the argument loses its logic.

Vaccine rollout priority has focused on reducing death and hospitalization. That’s why we started with the elderly. If we wanted to reduce the number of infections, we would have started with the young.

Now that the old are vaccinated, we need to make sure young adult vaccination is quickly ramped up. There should be plenty of vaccine available shortly to do so.

“This is the time when we’re going from scarcity to surplus,” said Williams of the Health Business Group. “People who are eligible are now getting appointments, even if they have to work a bit, and a lot more people are now eligible. It still feels tight. But in the next two to three weeks, instead of waking up at 1 in the morning to book an appointment, you should be able to do at 2 in the afternoon.”

Today’s news that the Pfizer vaccine seems to work well in kids and not pose safety concerns is also great news. We should vaccinate the whole population by summer if at all possible.

Image by Manie Van der Hoven from Pixabay

By healthcare business consultant David E. Williams, president of Health Business Group.

March 31, 2021

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