Grading my 2022 healthcare predictions
When I shared 7 Healthcare predictions for 2022 late last year, reactions to Number 2: “COVID becomes less political” ranged from skeptical to downright dismissive. Yet as I evaluate how the predictions are faring as of August 2022, that one was perhaps the most accurate.
Here’s a quick self-evaluation of the full set. Send me an email to let me know what you think.
1. Retailers make care more consumer friendly: B+
Walgreens, Walmart, and CVS have made only modest progress this year. But Amazon’s purchase of OneMedical could be a game changer for primary care. I agree with the Harvard Business Review’s perspective that Amazon will bring simplicity, experimentation and recombination at scale.
Amazon’s move has already spurred CVS to announce it’s planning a big deal this year, too. So the final grade on this one may rise!
2. COVID becomes less political: A
When I made the prediction, there were intense battles over vaccination, masking, and shutdowns. Two major changes have occurred: 1) new opportunities for political disagreement have arisen –think abortion, inflation and Ukraine. And 2) as the virus and research on it have evolved, solutions have become more nuanced and views less ironclad.
Vaccination continues to dramatically reduce serious illness and death. But with new variants, ‘breakthrough’ infections are the norm, there are questions about just how many boosters people want, and there are differences in opinion about vaccinating young kids. We’ve learned that masks work but mask mandates don’t. And no one is advocating shutdowns.
Meanwhile, individuals of all political persuasions have had the shared experience of being infected themselves, which works to increase empathy and decrease politicization.
3. Cybersecurity threats in healthcare get bigger and scarier: A-
There has been a rise in attacks, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raises the likelihood of major escalation. Hospitals continue to muddle through with incremental upgrades to their security postures.
But to its credit, the federal government has stepped up its game, actively confronting North Korean hackers, preventing attacks and even seizing and returning ransoms. This is one prediction where I’d like the grade to drop.
4. Consumers stake a claim to their own health data: B-
There has not been a groundswell of consumer activism, with one very important exception. When Roe v. Wade was overturned, women realized that personal information contained in their fertility apps could be used against them by police and prosecutors.
The immediate impact has been the deletion of apps and scrubbing of data, which is honestly not what I had in mind when I made this prediction.
5. Climate change becomes a major healthcare issue: B
Super-hot temperatures and flooding this summer have made climate change a top-of-mind topic and have directly sickened and killed people. It’s becoming clear that some places (like parts of India) are becoming too hot to sustain human life.
There is a growing realization that climate change can spur new diseases and make pandemics more frequent, but in general the public linkages to healthcare have been a little lower profile than I envisioned.
6. Clinical trials simultaneously decentralize and centralize: A-
Non-traditional clinical trials are variously described as decentralized, virtual, remote or site-less. None of those terms accurately conveys the essence of the new designs. For example, a ‘decentralized’ trial often includes a centralized master site.
Now that clinical sites have reopened, hybrid protocols are being developed to optimize assessment schedules, reduce patient burden, and preserve flexibility. Televisits, wearables and e-diaries are typical elements, with more advanced remote assessments included in some cases. Sponsors are hoping that newer approaches will increase the diversity of trial populations.
Consultants from ZS, Deloitte and PWC and to a lesser degree Science37 and Thread are helping sponsors evaluate their best options for adding decentralized elements to their protocols.
7. Old age is pushed back: D
Maybe it’s just my audience, but this prediction was the most popular one when I reviewed it with colleagues and friends! I argued that today’s typical 75 year old is more like the 65 year old of yore in terms of health and productive years ahead.
Sadly, this prediction is not coming to pass in 2022.
The acute stage of the pandemic was tough on older people, killing many of them. And the impact appears to be long-lasting. For example, workers in their 50s and 60s who took early retirement during the pandemic are not returning –never mind working past 65.
If we’re not aggressive in tackling it, long COVID may actually set back progress on this prediction by reducing years of productivity and health. If that happens, the final grade may be an F.
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Let me know what you think and stay tuned for my healthcare predictions for 2023.
By healthcare business consultant David E. Williams, president of Health Business Group.
